Ledger / Prediction #1875 · narrative · 24H

Will "grokbit" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 2257 launches in the last hour referenced "grokbit" (28 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.21×.

Made2026-10-11 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": -1.546563196838144,
      "diversity": -0.18510638297872342
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2693778160275741
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "grokbit",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.004480286738351254,
    "share60": 0.02103631532329495,
    "total15": 557,
    "total60": 2257,
    "momentum": 0.21297868326730807,
    "diversity": 0.5957446808510638,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 28
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 310,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946433333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997768055555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2693778160275741
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.073

Log loss0.314

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007288924883579672,
  "shareRatio": 0.6692237771850614,
  "totalAfter": 49390,
  "shareBefore": 0.001092667503603478,
  "totalBefore": 43014,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 36,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 27% that "grokbit" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.11% → 0.07% (-33%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "grokbit" (24H). momentum contributed -1.55 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3a8766c9c7574d7ef6bc25f9bbc3fe0d53c6de931d390ecf537afd6012e08f08

Previous hash5e44810f5da238228ef06a5bc8f098c298d7be9c2a8c45d4b5d829ee7ce818b0