GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1876 · narrative · 24H

Will "rusd" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2257 launches in the last hour referenced "rusd" (5 distinct creators, rank #335). Last 15m momentum 0.37×.

Made2026-10-11 22:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 22:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 21:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -1.000019490470074,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3429873412634175
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "rusd",
    "rank60": 335,
    "share15": 0.0008960573476702509,
    "share60": 0.002435783879539415,
    "total15": 557,
    "total60": 2257,
    "momentum": 0.3678722710980776,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 310,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946433333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997768055555556
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3429873412634175
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 22:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.118
Log loss0.420
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.06699289655698717,
  "totalAfter": 49390,
  "shareBefore": 0.00013948946854512484,
  "totalBefore": 43014,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "rusd" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.01% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "rusd" (24H). momentum contributed -1.00 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha0d7b41891036d2c3325922921bf03d5ba40e0c165835ca885b38fd7b8836200
Previous hash3a8766c9c7574d7ef6bc25f9bbc3fe0d53c6de931d390ecf537afd6012e08f08