Ledger / Prediction #1884 · narrative · 1H
Will "fomo" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 75% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
11 of 2283 launches in the last hour referenced "fomo" (10 distinct creators, rank #72). Last 15m momentum 2.93×.
Made2026-10-11 22:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 23:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 22:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.11826860405464054,
"momentum": 1.0757581083704792,
"diversity": 0.19090909090909086
},
"rawProbability": 0.7474269013707234
},
"features": {
"term": "fomo",
"rank60": 72,
"share15": 0.014763779527559055,
"share60": 0.005035026269702277,
"total15": 507,
"total60": 2283,
"momentum": 2.9322149948647724,
"diversity": 0.9090909090909091,
"launches15": 7,
"launches60": 11,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 10
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 263,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9996202777777777,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996202777777777
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7474269013707234
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 23:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.559
Log loss1.376
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.002406159769008662,
"shareRatio": 0.5256498734759604,
"totalAfter": 2078,
"shareBefore": 0.004816112084063047,
"totalBefore": 2284,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 5,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 11
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 75% that "fomo" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.48% → 0.24% (-50%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "fomo" (1H). momentum contributed +1.08 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
2b9a8c26c9e39b6617ffb67c079ee11ccc3995056689309fe9c5b66a0c43a6baPrevious hash
30625186ae2e232014decb70d7296614ac5d353d4ad37bc9058a20e998806766