Ledger / Prediction #1885 · narrative · 6H

Will "domain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

201 of 2283 launches in the last hour referenced "domain" (3 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.01×.

Made2026-10-11 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 04:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 22:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5540800493437462,
      "momentum": -4.495734438749264,
      "diversity": -0.8820895522388059
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "domain",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.000984251968503937,
    "share60": 0.08822241681260946,
    "total15": 507,
    "total60": 2283,
    "momentum": 0.01115648385142924,
    "diversity": 0.014925373134328358,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 201,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 263,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996202777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999367129629629
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 04:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00009485866059571239,
  "shareRatio": 0.009477881172798946,
  "totalAfter": 10542,
  "shareBefore": 0.014976125018087108,
  "totalBefore": 13822,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 207
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "domain" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.50% → 0.01% (-99%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "domain" (6H). momentum contributed -4.50 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5046e371209afa3075115d7a1fe3a0fd419bf7e4c3b19c0aa7ff1c25321ed123

Previous hash2b9a8c26c9e39b6617ffb67c079ee11ccc3995056689309fe9c5b66a0c43a6ba