Ledger / Prediction #1894 · token · 6H

Will $ChonkXPuma still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 25m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-11 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 04:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 22:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09583022773245922
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "29byz67jYR43qNyAcaWzkAkrLwkF2cPer2YfdK32pump",
    "name": "CHUMA",
    "symbol": "ChonkXPuma",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 25,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 31,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3286.480683500792,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 772,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.09583022773245922
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 04:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.009

Log loss0.101

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T22:16:14.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3102.6493374730035,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 7338.189015441332,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3286.480683500792,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6572.961367001584
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that $ChonkXPuma would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,103, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $ChonkXPuma (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf96eaa419b329333c31c7733c4e08e79c921ca426931a0caced728afbab1c1d1

Previous hash3d2c25913c5ef2b9a0165db047bb593d4a8ce761ad6feb8a90667459012ad11e