Ledger / Prediction #190 · token · 6H

Will $PEPE still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 25m ago. X link. Rides hot term "pepe". Creator launched 124 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-09 14:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 20:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 14:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "GmFyXuk4XDDHPDqsB8KxFSur2Ao6sjRtfFCJkBa5pq8k",
    "name": "Pepe",
    "symbol": "PEPE",
    "hotTerms": [
      "pepe",
      "memecoin"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 25,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 8,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3069.5455546401595,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 124
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 765,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 20:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 3069.5455546401595,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3069.5455546401595,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6139.091109280319
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $PEPE would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,070, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $PEPE (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9b092ba6ae688d31700b9a3fe6558a334abf22c4140a079762c491888e27b90b

Previous hashcfa48cba0508a28924e4c4ba9cd7f164896b123e6646da842945fdb9d4b16a23