Will "pfp" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

46 of 2130 launches in the last hour referenced "pfp" (29 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 4.08×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3328805226082492,
      "momentum": 1.4066790442159784,
      "diversity": -0.1434782608695652
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6936537490793047
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pfp",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.08908045977011494,
    "share60": 0.021820741435945566,
    "total15": 521,
    "total60": 2130,
    "momentum": 4.0823754789272035,
    "diversity": 0.6304347826086957,
    "launches15": 46,
    "launches60": 46,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 234,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965947222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994324537037037
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6936537490793047
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008767657087189478,
  "shareRatio": 0.24579297483066923,
  "totalAfter": 10265,
  "shareBefore": 0.0037286152946337183,
  "totalBefore": 13678,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity