Ledger / Prediction #1913 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 2068 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (21 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.16×.

Made2026-10-11 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 23:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": 0.14464397827203404,
      "diversity": -0.15882352941176467
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49334010407308976
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.019269776876267748,
    "share60": 0.0166747220879652,
    "total15": 492,
    "total60": 2068,
    "momentum": 1.1556280683187818,
    "diversity": 0.6176470588235294,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 268,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935447222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935447222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49334010407308976
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 00:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.243

Log loss0.680

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005260081823495032,
  "shareRatio": 0.33423066504131105,
  "totalAfter": 1711,
  "shareBefore": 0.01636976408281175,
  "totalBefore": 2077,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 34
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.64% → 0.53% (-68%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). diversity contributed -0.16 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe626e27bdde7d9c954565761e29f7643688b78962bbcf1ca0e7cfccd9132fdf3

Previous hash54a698c875ab7471bb8311e25340494a38bfef4f5894b37af6065255f1856a0b