Ledger / Prediction #1918 · narrative · 6H

Will "pill" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

30 of 2068 launches in the last hour referenced "pill" (19 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 1.58×.

Made2026-10-11 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 23:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2687639203842082,
      "momentum": 0.4589318554586913,
      "diversity": -0.14000000000000004
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5278180050490863
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pill",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.02332657200811359,
    "share60": 0.014741420976317062,
    "total15": 492,
    "total60": 2068,
    "momentum": 1.5823828683536727,
    "diversity": 0.6333333333333333,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 30,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 268,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935447222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989241203703704
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5278180050490863
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.223

Log loss0.639

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003637098403717923,
  "shareRatio": 1.2158122336806565,
  "totalAfter": 9898,
  "shareBefore": 0.002996418913980852,
  "totalBefore": 13683,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 36,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "pill" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.30% → 0.36% (+21%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pill" (6H). momentum contributed +0.46 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc031a9611c116284a8a0c9b6e68b72829d381825c4a0748ea58044d627663f1b

Previous hashd3ba6f07f92603762777d71505ed8e87e173d5495cf925bcc0193c79b2ef9fa1