Ledger / Prediction #1919 · narrative · 6H

Will "pepe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

27 of 2068 launches in the last hour referenced "pepe" (23 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.69×.

Made2026-10-11 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 23:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2529598430355343,
      "momentum": -0.3757971041933986,
      "diversity": 0.12222222222222223
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4254522405970607
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pepe",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.009127789046653144,
    "share60": 0.013291445142580956,
    "total15": 492,
    "total60": 2068,
    "momentum": 0.6867416559100129,
    "diversity": 0.8518518518518519,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 27,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 268,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935447222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989241203703704
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4254522405970607
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.181

Log loss0.554

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.010103051121438675,
  "shareRatio": 0.5705435991813,
  "totalAfter": 9898,
  "shareBefore": 0.01775926331944749,
  "totalBefore": 13683,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 100,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 243
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "pepe" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.78% → 1.01% (-43%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pepe" (6H). momentum contributed -0.38 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashcfad17c79dbae15f6f7b7a8a166ea921c6db91ca0c47c3655338dee5415f381e

Previous hashc031a9611c116284a8a0c9b6e68b72829d381825c4a0748ea58044d627663f1b