Ledger / Prediction #192 · token · 6H

Will $KERNELOS still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 27m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-09 14:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 20:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 14:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11461549863791237
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "CLu973KwsuuR7k6eXwzM78oqDhSZEfFhrSAjExfUYSAh",
    "name": "KernelOs",
    "symbol": "KERNELOS",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 27,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 68,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3058.6497010862013,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 765,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791237
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 20:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.013

Log loss0.122

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T14:14:33.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3065.542928667381,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3065.542928667381,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3058.6497010862013,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6117.299402172403
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that $KERNELOS would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,066, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $KERNELOS (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4347e4b1184f5ba56c19efb1b41e20abf9576b954ecfae84857ef5f69bc2ff6e

Previous hash7658fbd519d2d676ed83efa59428ea737c8d8b8f591247613240b07f8c8d6f38