Ledger / Prediction #1934 · narrative · 6H

Will "tobey" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

75 of 1916 launches in the last hour referenced "tobey" (11 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.48×.

Made2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4062075301653315,
      "momentum": 0.3904243706589654,
      "diversity": -0.7239999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4380308362247778
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tobey",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.05819477434679335,
    "share60": 0.03938445487741262,
    "total15": 420,
    "total60": 1916,
    "momentum": 1.4776077142093094,
    "diversity": 0.14666666666666667,
    "launches15": 24,
    "launches60": 75,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 250,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988055555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999800925925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4380308362247778
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.316

Log loss0.826

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0086687306501548,
  "shareRatio": 1.2022976644997077,
  "totalAfter": 9690,
  "shareBefore": 0.007215651268318084,
  "totalBefore": 13443,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 84,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 97
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 44% that "tobey" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.72% → 0.87% (+20%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "tobey" (6H). diversity contributed -0.72 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdd27be42e8ab5dc95829bea37c011017e728e2d7f42c2f6418f218b52f20dbef

Previous hash0a8d38eb4acb3289c758a6f8594e7482e3f5cc963914a7207aca87367cec24d1