Ledger / Prediction #1937 · narrative · 24H

Will "tobey" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

75 of 1916 launches in the last hour referenced "tobey" (11 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.48×.

Made2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4062075301653315,
      "momentum": 0.3904243706589654,
      "diversity": -0.7239999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.43445830382929035
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tobey",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.05819477434679335,
    "share60": 0.03938445487741262,
    "total15": 420,
    "total60": 1916,
    "momentum": 1.4776077142093094,
    "diversity": 0.14666666666666667,
    "launches15": 24,
    "launches60": 75,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 250,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988055555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999502314814814
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.43445830382929035
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 00:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.189

Log loss0.570

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0018911664226451928,
  "shareRatio": 0.8277557311292593,
  "totalAfter": 49176,
  "shareBefore": 0.0022852027233962353,
  "totalBefore": 42447,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 93,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 97
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "tobey" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.19% (-17%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "tobey" (24H). diversity contributed -0.72 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8118e4675034d52326cbf849aef9490f89d41167412f060af9667bb999fb49e5

Previous hash6927c0f31b6c3658997885d92ff278d26a274b33e9f37ee7c3762d0a5cbb264a