Will "frog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1916 launches in the last hour referenced "frog" (5 distinct creators, rank #140). Last 15m momentum 0.27×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.3173294346929532,
      "diversity": -0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.26925327455768405
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "frog",
    "rank60": 140,
    "share15": 0.0011876484560570072,
    "share60": 0.004434011476264998,
    "total15": 420,
    "total60": 1916,
    "momentum": 0.26784965767779795,
    "diversity": 0.625,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 250,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9988055555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999502314814814
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.26925327455768405
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004067024564828371,
  "shareRatio": 0.84628426442023,
  "totalAfter": 49176,
  "shareBefore": 0.004805993356420949,
  "totalBefore": 42447,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 200,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 204
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity