Ledger / Prediction #1946 · narrative · 1H
Will "motion" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 70% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
29 of 1700 launches in the last hour referenced "motion" (18 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 2.76×.
Made2026-10-12 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 01:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.263678687632856,
"momentum": 1.0161826091771937,
"diversity": -0.15517241379310343
},
"rawProbability": 0.6952307523444323
},
"features": {
"term": "motion",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.04791154791154791,
"share60": 0.01734273956496179,
"total15": 406,
"total60": 1700,
"momentum": 2.762628576187898,
"diversity": 0.6206896551724138,
"launches15": 19,
"launches60": 29,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 18
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 198,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963244444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963244444444445
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6952307523444323
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 01:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.483
Log loss1.188
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.003590664272890485,
"shareRatio": 0.2256102505879491,
"totalAfter": 1671,
"shareBefore": 0.01694915254237288,
"totalBefore": 1711,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 6,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 29
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 70% that "motion" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.69% → 0.36% (-79%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "motion" (1H). momentum contributed +1.02 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
06da5d3fde9941d8202dda97bc11ea0b46a9e1d09d21ab4f77a602f6d63eb177Previous hash
fb4a1e42a5f31013f9bc2356f73a9450d9a67b1625e5e3400fa79eadd22afd72