Ledger / Prediction #1951 · narrative · 6H

Will "feet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

23 of 1700 launches in the last hour referenced "feet" (3 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.62×.

Made2026-10-12 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22890844552425738,
      "momentum": -0.4740790457014786,
      "diversity": -0.7434782608695651
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.27050652514122253
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "feet",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.0085995085995086,
    "share60": 0.013815402704291593,
    "total15": 406,
    "total60": 1700,
    "momentum": 0.6224580479899628,
    "diversity": 0.13043478260869565,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 23,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 198,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963244444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993874074074074
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.27050652514122253
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.073

Log loss0.315

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0001063264221158958,
  "shareRatio": 0.06840070690839122,
  "totalAfter": 9405,
  "shareBefore": 0.0022934026450577173,
  "totalBefore": 13081,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 30
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 27% that "feet" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.01% (-95%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "feet" (6H). diversity contributed -0.74 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash89a1760612cbafc41a88980bf770b0358ff632bb103efd88232a91d1eb64df76

Previous hash209bdd1b18422056b52fdb72b985f82dc6defd850e9c23d45eddfd1ac5157347