Ledger / Prediction #1952 · narrative · 6H
Will "across" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 26% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 1700 launches in the last hour referenced "across" (6 distinct creators, rank #151). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.
Made2026-10-12 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": -1.2778917941489434,
"diversity": 0.1285714285714285
},
"rawProbability": 0.2555562656343132
},
"features": {
"term": "across",
"rank60": 151,
"share15": 0.0012285012285012285,
"share60": 0.004409171075837742,
"total15": 406,
"total60": 1700,
"momentum": 0.2786240786240786,
"diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 198,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963244444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993874074074074
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.2555562656343132
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.554
Log loss1.364
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0029771398192450825,
"shareRatio": 1.0859783466688415,
"totalAfter": 9405,
"shareBefore": 0.002752083174069261,
"totalBefore": 13081,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 28,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 36
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 26% that "across" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.30% (+8%). PARTIAL.
— "across" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
961dba5e07fcac88d2441e158a2935a3951efaf27e512db97fd3daa8954617b0Previous hash
89a1760612cbafc41a88980bf770b0358ff632bb103efd88232a91d1eb64df76