Will "motion" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
29 of 1700 launches in the last hour referenced "motion" (18 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 2.76×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.263678687632856,
"momentum": 1.0161826091771937,
"diversity": -0.15517241379310343
},
"rawProbability": 0.5652125198714485
},
"features": {
"term": "motion",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.04791154791154791,
"share60": 0.01734273956496179,
"total15": 406,
"total60": 1700,
"momentum": 2.762628576187898,
"diversity": 0.6206896551724138,
"launches15": 19,
"launches60": 29,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 18
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 198,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963244444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998468518518518
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5652125198714485
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0011819849195027511,
"shareRatio": 1.0852412008669465,
"totalAfter": 49070,
"shareBefore": 0.0010867254128375345,
"totalBefore": 42329,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 58,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 46
}Predicted 57% that "motion" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.11% → 0.12% (+9%). PARTIAL.
— "motion" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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