Ledger / Prediction #1955 · narrative · 24H

Will "paid" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

22 of 1700 launches in the last hour referenced "paid" (18 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.

Made2026-10-12 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22224068113863232,
      "momentum": -1.2778917941489432,
      "diversity": 0.08181818181818187
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3128311472191507
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "paid",
    "rank60": 16,
    "share15": 0.0036855036855036856,
    "share60": 0.013227513227513227,
    "total15": 406,
    "total60": 1700,
    "momentum": 0.2786240786240787,
    "diversity": 0.8181818181818182,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 22,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 198,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963244444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998468518518518
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3128311472191507
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 00:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.098

Log loss0.375

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005481964540452415,
  "shareRatio": 0.6807559119002068,
  "totalAfter": 49070,
  "shareBefore": 0.008055942734295636,
  "totalBefore": 42329,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 269,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 341
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 31% that "paid" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.81% → 0.55% (-32%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "paid" (24H). momentum contributed -1.28 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash80243a3d4c1999f303fa563993351a81aaf4f42e3ed2c0fe934b98bfa000637e

Previous hash5b63f783993722db8ae581ef50aac0ddfdbe51c7075b7e831a00ff7bf9c09f04