Ledger / Prediction #1963 · narrative · 1H

Will "tobey" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

80 of 1623 launches in the last hour referenced "tobey" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.12×.

Made2026-10-12 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4158883083359672,
      "momentum": -2.090586106232901,
      "diversity": -0.855
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05574030169349968
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tobey",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.006127450980392157,
    "share60": 0.04956896551724138,
    "total15": 407,
    "total60": 1623,
    "momentum": 0.12361466325660699,
    "diversity": 0.0375,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 80,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 168,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926958333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9926958333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05574030169349968
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.057

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000514668039114771,
  "shareRatio": 0.015671727628249366,
  "totalAfter": 1943,
  "shareBefore": 0.04895960832313342,
  "totalBefore": 1634,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 80
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that "tobey" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.90% → 0.05% (-99%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "tobey" (1H). momentum contributed -2.09 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha2099d9bb2ad8e0fd9c916bc613edd925c9ef4bbf26460d31bc59804c69357ec

Previous hash9b81388d999732523c04419a34782c7c3ab39ed67feae3a182e3e91914364333