Ledger / Prediction #1964 · narrative · 1H

Will "bitcat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 72% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 1623 launches in the last hour referenced "bitcat" (7 distinct creators, rank #80). Last 15m momentum 3.14×.

Made2026-10-12 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": 1.1449915682532312,
      "diversity": 0.03333333333333335
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7244199070104436
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bitcat",
    "rank60": 80,
    "share15": 0.01838235294117647,
    "share60": 0.005849753694581281,
    "total15": 407,
    "total60": 1623,
    "momentum": 3.142414860681115,
    "diversity": 0.7777777777777778,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 168,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926958333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9926958333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7244199070104436
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.525

Log loss1.289

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.044265756985055235,
  "totalAfter": 1943,
  "shareBefore": 0.0055079559363525096,
  "totalBefore": 1634,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 72% that "bitcat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.55% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "bitcat" (1H). momentum contributed +1.14 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash18e039f8a32cdf57b2d010e6426963d7feed325d0be035ec778528facb68cdac

Previous hasha2099d9bb2ad8e0fd9c916bc613edd925c9ef4bbf26460d31bc59804c69357ec