Ledger / Prediction #1965 · narrative · 6H

Will "reggie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

51 of 1623 launches in the last hour referenced "reggie" (24 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.20×.

Made2026-10-12 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34835815804353376,
      "momentum": 0.18063856257297187,
      "diversity": -0.3352941176470588
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4589902884741674
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "reggie",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.03799019607843137,
    "share60": 0.031711822660098525,
    "total15": 407,
    "total60": 1623,
    "momentum": 1.1979821054635444,
    "diversity": 0.47058823529411764,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 51,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 168,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926958333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987826388888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4589902884741674
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 07:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.211

Log loss0.614

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00032119914346895073,
  "shareRatio": 0.09274178041684898,
  "totalAfter": 9340,
  "shareBefore": 0.004001255295779068,
  "totalBefore": 12746,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "reggie" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.40% → 0.03% (-92%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "reggie" (6H). diversity contributed -0.34 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha67b6e97b71c6443659301c1d04e46245c59408026851d7b927fb60e8ca192b3

Previous hash18e039f8a32cdf57b2d010e6426963d7feed325d0be035ec778528facb68cdac