Ledger / Prediction #1968 · narrative · 6H

Will "goku" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 29% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

10 of 1623 launches in the last hour referenced "goku" (4 distinct creators, rank #63). Last 15m momentum 0.57×.

Made2026-10-12 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1039720770839918,
      "momentum": -0.5645298027378518,
      "diversity": -0.42
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.28569394409091586
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "goku",
    "rank60": 63,
    "share15": 0.003676470588235294,
    "share60": 0.00646551724137931,
    "total15": 407,
    "total60": 1623,
    "momentum": 0.5686274509803921,
    "diversity": 0.4,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 10,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 168,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926958333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987826388888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.28569394409091586
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 07:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.082

Log loss0.336

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008565310492505353,
  "shareRatio": 0.4935892325528954,
  "totalAfter": 9340,
  "shareBefore": 0.0018044876824101679,
  "totalBefore": 12746,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 23
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 29% that "goku" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.18% → 0.09% (-53%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "goku" (6H). momentum contributed -0.56 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash696c8a30b09b628f634b3fc4ccfaf2a1eae71ea2f45ee1b3207b929f511bfc81

Previous hash1f4468e22c91dc9f2f4f2a58099d199ff7031cc7e3764df565ca163fa04a942e