Will "qsb" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

74 of 2264 launches in the last hour referenced "qsb" (35 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 3.19×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40419407711551036,
      "momentum": 1.16024829776708,
      "diversity": -0.3324324324324324
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6370092811931354
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "qsb",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.10494880546075085,
    "share60": 0.03289183222958057,
    "total15": 585,
    "total60": 2264,
    "momentum": 3.190725427766452,
    "diversity": 0.47297297297297297,
    "launches15": 61,
    "launches60": 74,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 35
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 359,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940633333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990105555555555
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6370092811931354
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005202236961893615,
  "shareRatio": 0.07611910797772313,
  "totalAfter": 15378,
  "shareBefore": 0.007213619313263441,
  "totalBefore": 10397,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 75
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity