Ledger / Prediction #1976 · token · 6H

Will $bitpuppy still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 15m ago. X link, website. No hot term. Creator launched 14 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-12 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "6dBAGixJs2nBRUyBN65zgEuquh7m9NTT32JoUK7cJ4kr",
    "name": "bitpuppy",
    "symbol": "bitpuppy",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 15,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3393.2955538305505,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 14
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 512,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 07:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T00:46:07.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3078.3160633693387,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 7065.639139459636,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3393.2955538305505,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6786.591107661101
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $bitpuppy would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,078, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $bitpuppy (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashec77097e37db5b5f01fb9f8247a2ac4c28d30a2cc2d891d632a8abdfb3fd0372

Previous hash822de6bde0399e177619deae8979d19c5489f76f869fc78fdb6e75bdd611903c