Ledger / Prediction #1977 · narrative · 1H

Will "spoderman" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

66 of 1666 launches in the last hour referenced "spoderman" (5 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.09×.

Made2026-10-12 01:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 01:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3870325244388488,
      "momentum": 0.7388391333860755,
      "diversity": -0.809090909090909
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5041950887414792
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "spoderman",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.08351409978308026,
    "share60": 0.039892021595680865,
    "total15": 460,
    "total60": 1666,
    "momentum": 2.0935038246375157,
    "diversity": 0.07575757575757576,
    "launches15": 38,
    "launches60": 66,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982583333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982583333333334
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5041950887414792
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.254

Log loss0.702

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.023346303501945526,
  "shareRatio": 0.5928189457601223,
  "totalAfter": 2056,
  "shareBefore": 0.03949730700179533,
  "totalBefore": 1671,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 48,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 66
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "spoderman" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.95% → 2.33% (-41%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "spoderman" (1H). momentum contributed +0.74 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4329d4b0407f5fff90a272f3b7d4e3ef85adc8bf14082569e9c423ee37680c77

Previous hashec77097e37db5b5f01fb9f8247a2ac4c28d30a2cc2d891d632a8abdfb3fd0372