Ledger / Prediction #1979 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

60 of 1666 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (37 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.57×.

Made2026-10-12 01:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 01:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3727359974682,
      "momentum": -0.5659687266761552,
      "diversity": -0.15999999999999995
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.34226141939413396
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.020607375271149676,
    "share60": 0.03629274145170966,
    "total15": 460,
    "total60": 1666,
    "momentum": 0.5678098277191158,
    "diversity": 0.6166666666666667,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 60,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 37
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982583333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982583333333334
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.34226141939413396
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.117

Log loss0.419

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03404669260700389,
  "shareRatio": 0.9317855745402375,
  "totalAfter": 2056,
  "shareBefore": 0.036505086774386596,
  "totalBefore": 1671,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 70,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 61
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.65% → 3.40% (-7%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe51c36015ab353716cfa68577277e6e8e3ff020bfcf3f3872237c2311b4d5495

Previous hashc4c65b0bee585aa46f28017400792675ec5e498c34a39fec387d92332607d24b