Ledger / Prediction #198 · narrative · 6H

Will "method" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

66 of 2264 launches in the last hour referenced "method" (4 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.54×.

Made2026-10-09 15:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 14:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3870325244388488,
      "momentum": 0.4319530336704898,
      "diversity": -0.8272727272727273
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4241399921285266
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "method",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.04522184300341297,
    "share60": 0.029359823399558498,
    "total15": 585,
    "total60": 2264,
    "momentum": 1.540262772973389,
    "diversity": 0.06060606060606061,
    "launches15": 26,
    "launches60": 66,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 359,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940633333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990105555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4241399921285266
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 21:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.180

Log loss0.552

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005462348809988295,
  "shareRatio": 0.6761167826256584,
  "totalAfter": 15378,
  "shareBefore": 0.008079253630855054,
  "totalBefore": 10397,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 84,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 84
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 42% that "method" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.81% → 0.55% (-32%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "method" (6H). diversity contributed -0.83 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe84d243837cb6457cd92f15dd760972d86636469163ad3acef27923fd64e2814

Previous hash68390d51228e769fa49319d61ad957a740d9a9134b7aba42601c2883342f15c0