Will "spoderman" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

66 of 1666 launches in the last hour referenced "spoderman" (5 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.09×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3870325244388488,
      "momentum": 0.7388391333860755,
      "diversity": -0.809090909090909
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4646566364096044
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "spoderman",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.08351409978308026,
    "share60": 0.039892021595680865,
    "total15": 460,
    "total60": 1666,
    "momentum": 2.0935038246375157,
    "diversity": 0.07575757575757576,
    "launches15": 38,
    "launches60": 66,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982583333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999274305555556
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4646566364096044
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012665468213760417,
  "shareRatio": 0.7934481373290027,
  "totalAfter": 48952,
  "shareBefore": 0.0015972156002669973,
  "totalBefore": 41948,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 62,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 67
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity