Ledger / Prediction #1990 · token · 6H

Will $Puppe still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 15m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "pepe". Creator launched 85 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-12 01:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 07:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 01:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "435eQZjfZjv61n7LNDX7sz2wT7gozGFTwoP21z3nKS8J",
    "name": "we got pepe's dog? genny",
    "symbol": "Puppe",
    "hotTerms": [
      "pepe",
      "dog"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 15,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 35,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3088.0386795646696,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 85
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 560,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 07:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T01:15:30.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3088.0386795646696,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3145.6567819831794,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3088.0386795646696,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6176.077359129339
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $Puppe would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,088, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $Puppe (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe9084c8bbbf54ede7c4635f6b7ecee33b18ec227675727c650fc97b62cadd055

Previous hashbb1b805b2a913efecf607e69330d09c2a1c13b3c559daedf5b3e15135f0b9c6f