Ledger / Prediction #1994 · narrative · 1H

Will "pair" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

66 of 1936 launches in the last hour referenced "pair" (10 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 2.83×.

Made2026-10-12 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 01:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3870325244388488,
      "momentum": 1.0386494152664332,
      "diversity": -0.7181818181818181
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6004883036807009
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pair",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.097,
    "share60": 0.03433144037170883,
    "total15": 499,
    "total60": 1936,
    "momentum": 2.825398496240602,
    "diversity": 0.15151515151515152,
    "launches15": 48,
    "launches60": 66,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952077777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9952077777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6004883036807009
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.361

Log loss0.918

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006611570247933884,
  "shareRatio": 0.20121890629657846,
  "totalAfter": 1815,
  "shareBefore": 0.033968090581574885,
  "totalBefore": 1943,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 12,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 66
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "pair" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.40% → 0.66% (-81%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "pair" (1H). momentum contributed +1.04 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash68cd34c1e07c4037a0ab7c1c4cf70f23c4f44f16c078c0b3d043c82715d82fbf

Previous hash327a561077228c35534fe06584a477003525f9c45c3b299eaaf75a75cb4484ce