Ledger / Prediction #1998 · narrative · 6H

Will "pair" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

66 of 1936 launches in the last hour referenced "pair" (10 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 2.83×.

Made2026-10-12 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 01:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3870325244388488,
      "momentum": 1.0386494152664332,
      "diversity": -0.7181818181818181
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5486580385004398
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pair",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.097,
    "share60": 0.03433144037170883,
    "total15": 499,
    "total60": 1936,
    "momentum": 2.825398496240602,
    "diversity": 0.15151515151515152,
    "launches15": 48,
    "launches60": 66,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952077777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992012962962963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5486580385004398
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.301

Log loss0.796

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0025380710659898475,
  "shareRatio": 0.3591405964365526,
  "totalAfter": 8668,
  "shareBefore": 0.007186606778276847,
  "totalBefore": 12245,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 22,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 88
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "pair" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.72% → 0.25% (-65%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "pair" (6H). momentum contributed +1.04 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash095dfe2da794aa05e714a555f78e54e72177c84b3d5743603beb06b873e987c2

Previous hash00ced4d8a3864b9e15c5e6067f65be49b882bfda60fb4a732fe26b3f83681a5b