Ledger / Prediction #1999 · narrative · 6H

Will "kyssss" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

64 of 1936 launches in the last hour referenced "kyssss" (5 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

Made2026-10-12 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 01:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3824167756388357,
      "momentum": -3.505524839376868,
      "diversity": -0.80625
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "kyssss",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.001,
    "share60": 0.03329891584925142,
    "total15": 499,
    "total60": 1936,
    "momentum": 0.030031007751937986,
    "diversity": 0.078125,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 64,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952077777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992012962962963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.010950540149745015,
  "totalAfter": 8668,
  "shareBefore": 0.005226623111474071,
  "totalBefore": 12245,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 64
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "kyssss" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.52% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "kyssss" (6H). momentum contributed -3.51 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash034594e1a9b4532b6ec452c5a245ebd9072301b87e9a0070e3562a91cf18cce0

Previous hash095dfe2da794aa05e714a555f78e54e72177c84b3d5743603beb06b873e987c2