Ledger / Prediction #2 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

71 of 1333 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (20 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.77×.

Made2026-10-09 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3979862946910822,
      "momentum": -0.26712828854538107,
      "diversity": -0.5619718309859154
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.32495035382871906
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.041033434650455926,
    "share60": 0.053598200899550225,
    "total15": 328,
    "total60": 1333,
    "momentum": 0.7655748506812337,
    "diversity": 0.28169014084507044,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 71,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 155,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918430555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918430555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.32495035382871906
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.106

Log loss0.393

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.05003734129947722,
  "shareRatio": 0.9496920989458303,
  "totalAfter": 1339,
  "shareBefore": 0.05270972531551596,
  "totalBefore": 1347,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 67,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 71
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.27% → 5.00% (-5%). PARTIAL.

— "uxento" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc7fb0753a9eecbe2a7b254a6d14e590e5b0ac555fea0b38f886f737ab3a78b4d

Previous hashadd5f3a5888b352eada7dd333c0e3271a046a81ff916d27c67b2db9bbc73d3f4