Will "live" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 68% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

86 of 2050 launches in the last hour referenced "live" (18 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 3.56×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4267364075729111,
      "momentum": 1.2702179396030888,
      "diversity": -0.6488372093023255
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6787682946076781
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "live",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.15021008403361344,
    "share60": 0.04217454900048757,
    "total15": 475,
    "total60": 2050,
    "momentum": 3.561628697721863,
    "diversity": 0.20930232558139536,
    "launches15": 71,
    "launches60": 86,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 229,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927197222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9927197222222223
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6787682946076781
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005758157389635317,
  "shareRatio": 0.14444584066348326,
  "totalAfter": 1563,
  "shareBefore": 0.04182879377431906,
  "totalBefore": 2056,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 86
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity