Ledger / Prediction #2011 · narrative · 1H

Will "pairburn" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

71 of 2050 launches in the last hour referenced "pairburn" (4 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

Made2026-10-12 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3979862946910822,
      "momentum": -3.5021797264189467,
      "diversity": -0.832394366197183
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pairburn",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0010504201680672268,
    "share60": 0.0348610433934666,
    "total15": 475,
    "total60": 2050,
    "momentum": 0.03013163307280954,
    "diversity": 0.056338028169014086,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 71,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 229,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927197222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9927197222222223
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 03:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.00919732441471572,
  "totalAfter": 1563,
  "shareBefore": 0.03453307392996109,
  "totalBefore": 2056,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 71
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "pairburn" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.45% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pairburn" (1H). momentum contributed -3.50 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash01f11ec7e5421f348fc99cb03a1f93b212487a76ffd6ee06309855d0cc813442

Previous hasha8cbf9cb78f19b57326f912fe9c2037a7316085aeea82e5e0641b83c539de06e