Ledger / Prediction #2012 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 2050 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (26 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 0.86×.

Made2026-10-12 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": -0.14877300859313985,
      "diversity": -0.2361702127659574
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4136645302127823
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.01995798319327731,
    "share60": 0.023159434422233057,
    "total15": 475,
    "total60": 2050,
    "momentum": 0.8617647058823529,
    "diversity": 0.5531914893617021,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 229,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927197222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9927197222222223
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4136645302127823
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 03:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.171

Log loss0.534

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.018554062699936022,
  "shareRatio": 0.8168192219679633,
  "totalAfter": 1563,
  "shareBefore": 0.022859922178988325,
  "totalBefore": 2056,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 29,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 41% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.29% → 1.86% (-19%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). diversity contributed -0.24 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha8c36a49a869a0a3ea7946ac918d192a407637488618cf60d75e565d26ccf38e

Previous hash01f11ec7e5421f348fc99cb03a1f93b212487a76ffd6ee06309855d0cc813442