Ledger / Prediction #2016 · narrative · 6H

Will "coge" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2050 launches in the last hour referenced "coge" (4 distinct creators, rank #221). Last 15m momentum 1.18×.

Made2026-10-12 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.16138191971069987,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4638052584895415
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "coge",
    "rank60": 221,
    "share15": 0.0031512605042016808,
    "share60": 0.002681618722574354,
    "total15": 475,
    "total60": 2050,
    "momentum": 1.1751336898395723,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 229,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927197222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987866203703704
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4638052584895415
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.288

Log loss0.768

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007053197848176928,
  "shareRatio": 15.488905309369091,
  "totalAfter": 8365,
  "shareBefore": 0.0004174668113884946,
  "totalBefore": 11977,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 59,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "coge" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.04% → 0.71% (+1590%). INCORRECT.

— momentum was right but too weak on "coge" (6H). momentum contributed +0.16 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on "coge" (6H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb40cd22471cdfa031383d7d46d1f19da4de923400bb1b3bf5db90b136ee1fac9

Previous hash9c1b42e754ac479eaa979a1b7b0492ffcdc9d5b73d333bd7ffd80fa17e70566c