Ledger / Prediction #2019 · narrative · 24H

Will "solamians" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

67 of 2050 launches in the last hour referenced "solamians" (21 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 2.14×.

Made2026-10-12 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3892882060435298,
      "momentum": 0.7600827447934972,
      "diversity": -0.5238805970149253
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5031862510967842
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "solamians",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.0703781512605042,
    "share60": 0.032910775231594344,
    "total15": 475,
    "total60": 2050,
    "momentum": 2.1384531590413944,
    "diversity": 0.31343283582089554,
    "launches15": 33,
    "launches60": 67,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 229,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927197222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996966550925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5031862510967842
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.253

Log loss0.700

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009515928837401737,
  "shareRatio": 0.5997798050424186,
  "totalAfter": 48340,
  "shareBefore": 0.001591940504193694,
  "totalBefore": 42087,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 46,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 67
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "solamians" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.16% → 0.10% (-40%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "solamians" (24H). momentum contributed +0.76 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc28a196dab39b5682977454a2738cc08e5bd8b1ad4b7acc20d6c8f6fe3f75e96

Previous hash17da695a4c8948010ca79e107e0eb6de321d7847a2dac9546c01e6a447bb06bf