Ledger / Prediction #202 · token · 6H

Will $QSB still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 15m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "quantum". Creator launched 3 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-09 15:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 14:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "EhZJuSCkYB1RKDJ5x4iNervhCiSiQYypwJGG9fMWyiJk",
    "name": "Quantum Safe Bitcoin",
    "symbol": "QSB",
    "hotTerms": [
      "quantum",
      "safe",
      "bitcoin",
      "qsb"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 15,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3078.1058638461554,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 3
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 753,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 21:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T20:52:31.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3048.461909731493,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 7366.195017953877,
  "tradedInFinal15m": true,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3078.1058638461554,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6156.211727692311
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $QSB would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,048, still trading). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $QSB (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha8d38a049a4fa60e9092422d9eeb7f7467671e0bd89c748806ff19c312cb5fa8

Previous hash595c69d1a2358cf480741e5af5f42cc54ba54d2575bbfde7ceb76a7b6478a324