Ledger / Prediction #2020 · narrative · 24H

Will "pons" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2050 launches in the last hour referenced "pons" (7 distinct creators, rank #166). Last 15m momentum 0.29×.

Made2026-10-12 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.2473852972612496,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3211575553761162
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pons",
    "rank60": 166,
    "share15": 0.0010504201680672268,
    "share60": 0.0036567528035104826,
    "total15": 475,
    "total60": 2050,
    "momentum": 0.2872549019607843,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 229,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927197222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996966550925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3211575553761162
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.103

Log loss0.387

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001551510136532892,
  "shareRatio": 0.4070212499014515,
  "totalAfter": 48340,
  "shareBefore": 0.003825409271271414,
  "totalBefore": 42087,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 75,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 161
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 32% that "pons" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.38% → 0.16% (-59%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pons" (24H). momentum contributed -1.25 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash90c58615e8193f757a5497b1795982bc22af255ed22fcb550425d67cdd99ab53

Previous hashc28a196dab39b5682977454a2738cc08e5bd8b1ad4b7acc20d6c8f6fe3f75e96