Ledger / Prediction #2021 · token · 1H

Will $HALO still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 23m ago. website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-12 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07984616815180759
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "53Eax7agpjBqfPBswdKEXWuez6pL4rfH7NQNEZ35pump",
    "name": "Halo",
    "symbol": "HALO",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 23,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 72,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 6314.984813036949,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 718,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07984616815180759
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 03:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.006

Log loss0.083

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T03:27:11.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 10354.349319133618,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 14091.552315690864,
  "tradedInFinal15m": true,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 6314.984813036949,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 12629.969626073898
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 8% that $HALO would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $10,354, still trading). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $HALO (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9aa8dd9b881a8a6ac1bade0f5963e5b71e93a9e6f0b0f1ca702f373099b49a86

Previous hash90c58615e8193f757a5497b1795982bc22af255ed22fcb550425d67cdd99ab53