Ledger / Prediction #2033 · narrative · 24H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

60 of 1813 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (44 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.35×.

Made2026-10-12 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3727359974682,
      "momentum": 0.2986447984902507,
      "diversity": -0.020000000000000063
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5064222462769938
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.04495912806539509,
    "share60": 0.03335170893054024,
    "total15": 366,
    "total60": 1813,
    "momentum": 1.3480307158781273,
    "diversity": 0.7333333333333333,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 60,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 44
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974336111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998930671296297
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5064222462769938
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.244

Log loss0.680

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.041263994371210394,
  "shareRatio": 1.0290495948440461,
  "totalAfter": 48323,
  "shareBefore": 0.04009737934984964,
  "totalBefore": 41898,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1994,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 1680
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "cat" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 4.01% → 4.13% (+3%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash655651860036dc1f87a010eebb55d41798af0f6b8f8aac2946f84ad742278832

Previous hashb61134f237975351a1a2b07605c728e815990b39b8106e269d81fc72b311f424