Ledger / Prediction #2034 · narrative · 24H

Will "nigr" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 1813 launches in the last hour referenced "nigr" (8 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.

Made2026-10-12 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": -1.3465111965459289,
      "diversity": -0.6957446808510638
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.23992792255052975
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "nigr",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.006811989100817439,
    "share60": 0.026185226019845645,
    "total15": 366,
    "total60": 1813,
    "momentum": 0.2601462785027965,
    "diversity": 0.1702127659574468,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974336111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998930671296297
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.23992792255052975
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.058

Log loss0.274

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0010760921300415952,
  "shareRatio": 0.3941105868719477,
  "totalAfter": 48323,
  "shareBefore": 0.0027447610864480406,
  "totalBefore": 41898,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 52,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 115
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 24% that "nigr" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.27% → 0.11% (-61%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "nigr" (24H). momentum contributed -1.35 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6bbc44ce285ac7e0cb721cf78ad1c9c2842b57d7d6c109e5e908cf3789f29610

Previous hash655651860036dc1f87a010eebb55d41798af0f6b8f8aac2946f84ad742278832