Will "huddle" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1551 launches in the last hour referenced "huddle" (8 distinct creators, rank #128). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.366446629713752,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.21484807471666478
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "huddle",
    "rank60": 128,
    "share15": 0.0013966480446927375,
    "share60": 0.00547680412371134,
    "total15": 357,
    "total60": 1551,
    "momentum": 0.25501150180742693,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943794444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943794444444445
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.21484807471666478
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.06279863481228669,
  "totalAfter": 1464,
  "shareBefore": 0.005118362124120281,
  "totalBefore": 1563,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 8
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity