Ledger / Prediction #2045 · narrative · 6H

Will "nigr" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

61 of 1551 launches in the last hour referenced "nigr" (9 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.02×.

Made2026-10-12 03:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 09:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 03:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3752153927608816,
      "momentum": 0.021878188956520356,
      "diversity": -0.7229508196721312
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.37096012624905145
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "nigr",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.040502793296089384,
    "share60": 0.03962628865979381,
    "total15": 357,
    "total60": 1551,
    "momentum": 1.0221192714720444,
    "diversity": 0.14754098360655737,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 61,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943794444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990632407407407
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.37096012624905145
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 09:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.138

Log loss0.464

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016410737310983473,
  "shareRatio": 0.26638537271448665,
  "totalAfter": 8531,
  "shareBefore": 0.006336354835870809,
  "totalBefore": 11363,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 72
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 37% that "nigr" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.63% → 0.16% (-74%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "nigr" (6H). diversity contributed -0.72 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashecda7d08e3df5ecaa4d5d7f5b1ab19a730d2a8893d4cdf6d8a1bdf2cbd73dfde

Previous hashdfd2d292dd0f67205d9e12d4722f3fdac06d2dfbc48bc4d94f19adf869edd16f