Will "bought" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1551 launches in the last hour referenced "bought" (6 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": -2.952073893454134,
      "diversity": -0.724390243902439
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.06582950576020138
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bought",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0013966480446927375,
    "share60": 0.026739690721649483,
    "total15": 357,
    "total60": 1551,
    "momentum": 0.05223127145453322,
    "diversity": 0.14634146341463414,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943794444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990632407407407
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.06582950576020138
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0021099519399835893,
  "shareRatio": 0.5664516546227589,
  "totalAfter": 8531,
  "shareBefore": 0.0037842119158672887,
  "totalBefore": 11363,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 18,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 43
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity