Will "retail" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1551 launches in the last hour referenced "retail" (6 distinct creators, rank #219). Last 15m momentum 0.33×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -1.098182643119073,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3350533130602815
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "retail",
    "rank60": 219,
    "share15": 0.0013966480446927375,
    "share60": 0.004188144329896907,
    "total15": 357,
    "total60": 1551,
    "momentum": 0.33347657928663516,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943794444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997658101851852
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3350533130602815
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0001647548242271969,
  "shareRatio": 0.37599497719354386,
  "totalAfter": 48557,
  "shareBefore": 0.0004536338458599943,
  "totalBefore": 41884,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 19
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity