Ledger / Prediction #2057 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

45 of 1430 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (37 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.37×.

Made2026-10-12 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3295836866004329,
      "momentum": 0.3177648621461846,
      "diversity": 0.08666666666666663
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6068320560937521
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.043689320388349516,
    "share60": 0.03179594689028651,
    "total15": 308,
    "total60": 1430,
    "momentum": 1.3740531313346849,
    "diversity": 0.8222222222222222,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 45,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 37
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 223,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991002777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991002777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6068320560937521
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 05:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.155

Log loss0.500

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03278688524590164,
  "shareRatio": 1.0415220428326588,
  "totalAfter": 1525,
  "shareBefore": 0.031446540880503145,
  "totalBefore": 1431,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 50,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 45
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 61% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.14% → 3.28% (+4%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash125c4ce0fe7e17e78e50cff854aef3a79e50824043ad14e13b180e935b4a9edf

Previous hash87d6820250b2b87e8e4c02f25d754a8ec9324f63f00402a34072cd81905c4351