Ledger / Prediction #2058 · narrative · 1H

Will "granny" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 1430 launches in the last hour referenced "granny" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.

Made2026-10-12 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": -2.8110179191949785,
      "diversity": -0.8052631578947368
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "granny",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.0016181229773462784,
    "share60": 0.026904262753319357,
    "total15": 308,
    "total60": 1430,
    "momentum": 0.060143739755390245,
    "diversity": 0.07894736842105263,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 223,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991002777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991002777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 05:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.012187026603802489,
  "totalAfter": 1525,
  "shareBefore": 0.026554856743535988,
  "totalBefore": 1431,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 38
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "granny" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.66% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "granny" (1H). momentum contributed -2.81 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8fea00a71fbd4f8bb8a7598d84afcab9f66b6fdbbc587143555568a2f34016bd

Previous hash125c4ce0fe7e17e78e50cff854aef3a79e50824043ad14e13b180e935b4a9edf